silver down 29 cents on the day. Opened 12.24 high 12.38 low/close 11.95
Silver sold off today in spite of continued stregth in the equity markets. A break below 11.70 would be bearish.
I am confused by the recent equity strength, but it is incontrovertable that we have closed above the friday high from August 5th. Because of this, I am neutral on Stocks. I would be bullish, but I just see and have heard of too much technical damage to individual stocks. There hasn't been a significant correction in stocks for 3 and a quarter years now. Additionally we are coming up to the weakest performing months of the year for stocks(September and October.)
US bonds pushed through to new highs, indicating the bond market believes that the Economy is weakening and accepting a lower yield to invest in bonds. The dollar meanwhile has stabalized above 84 which indicates that it is not totally comfortable assuming that the Fed is done raising rates. I wish there was some chart which combined the dollar index with the bond index so that a bond move up was amplified by a dollar move up and vice-versa, whereas it was cancelled by a dollar move down and vice-versa. Right now, it is clear that the dollar/bond are moving up. To be perfectly frank, I have no freaking clue what is going to happen next. I have long thought that the bonds would head for 111 and that the dollar would make it back to 89-90 area. But I don't see how that could happen without the equity market taking a bath.
Gold has been selling off and will probably continue to do so until it gets to at least 605 dollars on the cash charts. Silver has support at 11.70. If silver and gold break these supports than an argument could be made that we are still in a correction which started in May, with the old lows to be revisited(i.e. 540 in gold and 9.45 in silver.)
I don't have any particular recommendations today and I am feeling confused. I am neutral everything.
May you see the silver lining,
Matt
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